Project: Manitoba Population Projections Report

Project: Manitoba Population Projections Report

Team: Events, Training & News

Date: This is not a timed event.


This report contains projections of Manitoba’s population for the period from 2013 to 2042. Additionally, projections are given for Manitoba’s five Regional Health Authorities (RHAs) and the First Nations population.

A Cohort Component Model was adopted to develop these population projections. This model is a common choice in provincial and regional population projection reports from other jurisdictions and was well suited to the available Manitoba Health data. This model estimates the population annually or in five year increments based on assumptions about changes in births, deaths, and migration. Specifically, the Cohort Component Model uses existing data to estimate:

  1. Age-specific and total fertility rates for women of reproductive age (i.e., 15 – 49 years) and the number of expected births,
  2. Mortality rates from age-specific survival and life expectancy data and the number of expected deaths, and
  3. Total net migration rates based on data about immigration, emigration, and both inter- and intra-provincial mobility and the number of expected migrants.

Different population scenarios are developed based on assumptions about these three components. The assumptions are typically developed using historical national, provincial/territorial, and/or regional data. An alternative model for developing population projections is the Demosim Microsimulation Projection Model from Statistics Canada. This is a person-specific model that ages each individual in the population and assigns individual fertility, mortality, and migration characteristics based on assumptions about trends in the population. This model was not adopted as it requires more detailed data and specialized computer software.

This report begins with an overview of highlights about the population projections. This is followed by a description of the methodology used in the development of the report; the projections are presented using a series of tables and graphics. A glossary of key terms used in the report and references is also provided.

As a final note, it is important to remember that the projections in this report are based on assumptions that must hold true for the projections to be realized. To emphasize this point, these assumptions will be referred to throughout the report.

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